They’ll also enter this season without Ruben Neves, who departed for the Saudi Pro League. In the 2021-22 season, they generated only 37.5 expected goals, the second-worst figure in the English top flight. Last year, they created a mere 36.8 expected goals, good for last in the league. The one element driving this consideration is Wolves’ complete ineptitude on the offensive end. Yet, at +400 – two dollars shorter than last year’s listing – it can’t be said. The hope was that with a larger sample of Championship-experienced sides, Wolves’ price would be far more appealing. I personally fired on this exact same market prior to last season, but the price just isn’t there this time around. Add in they posted the second-worst road expected goal differential, and we’ll back them to go back to the Championship at +250 or better. Without those points in the upcoming season, it’s questionable, at best, how Forest stays up. In seven home matches against Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Tottenham, Forest posted a -1 goal differential against a -7.4 expected goal differential. Even worse for Forest is that a good chunk of that overperformance came against the league’s best sides. However, that came against a -7.2 expected goal differential, good for third-worst in the league and worst amongst returning teams. Last season, manager Steve Cooper’s side posted a +3 goal differential at the City Ground. ![]() Most of our skepticism with Forest stems from their overperformance at home. Thus, the Tricky Trees are our target in the relegation market. With Bournemouth securing a new manager in Andoni Iraola, that should boost the Cherries enough to keep them safe. Nottingham Forest to be Relegated (+275, 0.5 unit)Īmongst returning sides from last season’s Premier League, Forest enters this campaign with the second-worst expected goal differential, per. Based on that factor and their huge price to be relegated, we’ll settle for the short shot in this market. While their defense will make them competitive against bottom-half sides – Luton ranked second in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes last season – the offense is a big worry. Penalty luck also aided them in their promotion as they ranked ninth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Relegated teams often suffer that consequence due to lack of offense, and Luton generated the eighth-most expected goals in the 2022-23 campaign. However, they finished with the fifth-best expected goal differential, per .Īdditionally, they lack offensive explosiveness that would allow them to succeed in the Premier League. Last season in the English Championship, Luton bagged a third-place finish before winning the playoff. ![]() Oddsmakers are skeptical of this Luton side, and there’s good reason for that wariness. What a wonderful story that will undoubtedly lead to a disastrous Premier League season. Then, we’ll offer up an analysis of other markets worth considering as the season approaches. Having established those prices, let’s dive into our two best bets – one for each market. Here’s how the odds for both markets shake out as of July 21: English Premier League Relegation PricesĮnglish Premier League “To Finish Last” Prices ![]() ![]() Regarding the latter, soccer bettors can wager on which team will finish in last place. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they’re offering a standard relegation market with a second, more-focused market. Having already broken down the outright prices for the top of the table, we now shift our focus to the opposite end – the relegated teams. English Premier League Odds, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Relegation Markets, Including Nottingham ForestĪs the English Premier League season rapidly approaches, we continue our evaluation of various futures markets.
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